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Ull/Kisa vs Asker — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ull/Kisa
Ull/Kisa
FT
4 – 1
Asker
Asker
3/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ull/Kisa65%
×Draw21%
Asker14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ull/Kisa
1.94
Asker
0.75

Ull/Kisa creates 159% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ull/Kisa
1.64
Asker
0.50

allows per match

Ull/Kisa
1.00
Asker
2.25

finishing

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par
Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ull/Kisa ↓

Asker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ull/Kisa or draw
86%
Ull/Kisa or Asker
79%
Draw or Asker
35%

Winning margin

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+
40%
Asker wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals
86%
Ull/Kisa 2+ goals
58%
Ull/Kisa 3+ goals
30%
Asker 1+ goals
53%
Asker 2+ goals
17%
Asker 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)
83%
Asker (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ull/Kisa at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Asker away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ull/Kisa attack 1.64 + Asker defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Asker attack 0.50 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ull/Kisa scores more
65%
level
21%
Asker scores more
14%

Ull/Kisa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ull/Kisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ull/Kisa
Asker
K. Wehrman
Manager: K. Wehrman
V. Skogheim
Manager: V. Skogheim

Ull/Kisa 4 – 1 Asker

Ull/Kisa beat Asker 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Jessheim Stadion in Jessheim.