Ulinzi Stars 4–0 Nakumatt: Result & Stats

Ulinzi Stars

FT

4 – 0

Nakumatt

6/2/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 34Afraha Stadium (Nakuru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ulinzi Stars50%

×Draw27%

Nakumatt23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulinzi StarsExpected goals in this matchNakumatt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.88

Ulinzi Stars

1.45

Nakumatt

0.88

Ulinzi Stars creates 65% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 38 away

1.06

creates per match

0.95

0.80

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars

1.06

Nakumatt

0.95

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars

0.80

Nakumatt

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Nakumatt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw

77%

Ulinzi Stars or Nakumatt

73%

Draw or Nakumatt

50%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

25%

Nakumatt wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

77%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

42%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

18%

Nakumatt 1+ goals

59%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

22%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

69%

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Nakumatt away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Nakumatt defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nakumatt attack 0.95 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more

50%

level

27%

Nakumatt scores more

23%

Ulinzi Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff