Nakumatt 2–3 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Nakumatt

FT

2 – 3

Ulinzi Stars

4/22/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 12Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt30%

×Draw26%

Ulinzi Stars44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NakumattExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.50

Nakumatt

1.19

Ulinzi Stars

1.50

Ulinzi Stars creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 146 away

1.43

creates per match

0.86

2.14

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Nakumatt

1.43

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Nakumatt

2.14

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw

56%

Nakumatt or Ulinzi Stars

74%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

70%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+

12%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals

70%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

33%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

12%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

78%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

44%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

40%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nakumatt scores more

30%

level

26%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

44%

Ulinzi Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff