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Ulinzi Stars vs Murang'a SEAL — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
AWD
0 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
1/25/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ulinzi Stars43%
×Draw31%
Murang'a SEAL26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.12
Murang'a SEAL
0.81

Ulinzi Stars creates 38% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Murang'a SEAL
0.82

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Murang'a SEAL
1.18

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Murang'a SEAL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
74%
Ulinzi Stars or Murang'a SEAL
69%
Draw or Murang'a SEAL
57%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
18%
Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
67%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
31%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
10%
Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
56%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
19%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
62%
Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Murang'a SEAL attack 0.82 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
43%
level
31%
Murang'a SEAL scores more
26%

Ulinzi Stars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulinzi Stars face Murang'a SEAL (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Ulinzi Stars hosting Murang'a SEAL. Match starts January 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ulinzi Stars host Murang'a SEAL at Ulinzi Sports Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.