Murang'a SEAL 3–2 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Murang'a SEAL

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ulinzi Stars

5/1/2025

Shield Cup · Quarter-finalsSportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Murang'a SEAL44%

×Draw25%

Ulinzi Stars31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Murang'a SEALExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Murang'a SEAL

1.54

Ulinzi Stars

1.25

Murang'a SEAL creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL

2.25

Ulinzi Stars

1.50

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL

1.00

Ulinzi Stars

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw

69%

Murang'a SEAL or Ulinzi Stars

75%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

56%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

22%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

79%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

45%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

20%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

71%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

36%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

59%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 2.25 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.50 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more

44%

level

25%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

31%

Murang'a SEAL at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff