Ulfstind 3–1 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Ulfstind

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad II

8/10/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 16TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind53%

×Draw19%

Fredrikstad II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlfstindExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.93

Ulfstind

2.66

Fredrikstad II

1.93

Ulfstind creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.77

creates per match

1.31

2.54

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Ulfstind

2.77

Fredrikstad II

1.31

allows per match

Ulfstind

2.54

Fredrikstad II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw

72%

Ulfstind or Fredrikstad II

81%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

47%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+

34%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals

93%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

74%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

49%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

85%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

57%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

65%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.77 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.66

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Ulfstind defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ulfstind scores more

53%

level

19%

Fredrikstad II scores more

28%

Ulfstind at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff