Fredrikstad II 6–1 Ulfstind: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad II

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ulfstind

5/26/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 8Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fredrikstad II49%

×Draw20%

Ulfstind31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fredrikstad IIExpected goals in this matchUlfstind

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.89

Fredrikstad II

2.38

Ulfstind

1.89

Fredrikstad II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.77

2.00

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Fredrikstad II

1.92

Ulfstind

1.77

allows per match

Fredrikstad II

2.00

Ulfstind

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Ulfstind →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw

69%

Fredrikstad II or Ulfstind

80%

Draw or Ulfstind

51%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

30%

Ulfstind wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

91%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

42%

Ulfstind 1+ goals

85%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

56%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

61%

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Ulfstind away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 1.92 + Ulfstind defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.38

Ulfstind attack 1.77 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more

49%

level

20%

Ulfstind scores more

31%

Fredrikstad II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff