Ulfstind 7–1 Bodø / Glimt II: Result & Stats

Ulfstind

FT

7 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Bodø / Glimt II

5/20/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 7TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind68%

×Draw15%

Bodø / Glimt II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlfstindExpected goals in this matchBodø / Glimt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.41

1.72

Ulfstind

3.41

Bodø / Glimt II

1.72

Ulfstind creates 98% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

2.77

creates per match

0.90

2.54

allows per match

4.05

creates per match

Ulfstind

2.77

Bodø / Glimt II

0.90

allows per match

Ulfstind

2.54

Bodø / Glimt II

4.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw

83%

Ulfstind or Bodø / Glimt II

85%

Draw or Bodø / Glimt II

32%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+

50%

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals

96%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

85%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

64%

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

82%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

51%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

80%

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 0.90, concedes 4.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.77 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.41

Bodø / Glimt II attack 0.90 + Ulfstind defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ulfstind scores more

68%

level

15%

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

17%

Ulfstind at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff