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Bodø / Glimt II vs Ulfstind — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Ulfstind
Ulfstind
8/4/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 15Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bodø / Glimt II40%
×Draw20%
Ulfstind40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt II
2.21
Ulfstind
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt II
1.58
Ulfstind
1.77

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt II
2.68
Ulfstind
2.85

finishing

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par
Ulfstind+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt II ↓

Ulfstind →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt II or draw
60%
Bodø / Glimt II or Ulfstind
80%
Draw or Ulfstind
60%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
22%
Ulfstind wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
89%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
65%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
38%
Ulfstind 1+ goals
89%
Ulfstind 2+ goals
65%
Ulfstind 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
50%
Ulfstind (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

Ulfstind away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.58 + Ulfstind defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.21

Ulfstind attack 1.77 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bodø / Glimt II scores more
40%
level
20%
Ulfstind scores more
40%

Bodø / Glimt II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bodø / Glimt II vs Ulfstind

Ulfstind beat Bodø / Glimt II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodø.