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Ulfstind vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Ulfstind
Ulfstind
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alta II
Alta II
N. Martynenko 77', 71', 38'
9/7/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 19Tønsnes kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind68%
×Draw15%
Alta II17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulfstind
3.23
Alta II
1.61

Ulfstind creates 101% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ulfstind
2.54
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Ulfstind
1.77
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw
83%
Ulfstind or Alta II
85%
Draw or Alta II
32%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+
49%
Alta II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals
96%
Ulfstind 2+ goals
82%
Ulfstind 3+ goals
61%
Alta II 1+ goals
80%
Alta II 2+ goals
48%
Alta II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)
80%
Alta II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.54 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.23

Alta II attack 1.46 + Ulfstind defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ulfstind scores more
68%
level
15%
Alta II scores more
17%

Ulfstind at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
N. Martynenko
71'
N. Martynenko
77'
N. Martynenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulfstind vs Alta II

Alta II beat Ulfstind 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 7, 2025.

Goals: N. Martynenko (38', 71', 77').

The match was played at Tønsnes kunstgress in Tromsø.