Alta II 3–3 Ulfstind: Result & Stats

Alta II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ulfstind

J. Kristensen 89' (pen), 68', 31'

S. Skoglund 86'

A. Valen 30'

J. Engstad Indal 27'

5/10/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 6SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta II43%

×Draw20%

Ulfstind37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alta IIExpected goals in this matchUlfstind

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

2.12

Alta II

2.30

Ulfstind

2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.00

3.23

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Alta II

1.92

Ulfstind

1.00

allows per match

Alta II

3.23

Ulfstind

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta II+0.00on par

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta II ↓

Ulfstind →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Alta II or draw

63%

Alta II or Ulfstind

80%

Draw or Ulfstind

57%

Winning margin

Alta II wins by 2+

25%

Ulfstind wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Alta II 1+ goals

90%

Alta II 2+ goals

67%

Alta II 3+ goals

40%

Ulfstind 1+ goals

88%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

62%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Alta II (draw refunded)

54%

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Ulfstind away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta II attack 1.92 + Ulfstind defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.30

Ulfstind attack 1.00 + Alta II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alta II scores more

43%

level

20%

Ulfstind scores more

37%

Alta II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

30'

31'

68'

86'

89'

J. KristensenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff