Ulaanbaatar 1–0 CPK: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Ulaanbaatar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CPK

11/9/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulaanbaatar57%

×Draw24%

CPK19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlaanbaatarExpected goals in this matchCPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.83

Ulaanbaatar

1.67

CPK

0.83

Ulaanbaatar creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar

1.33

CPK

0.67

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar

1.00

CPK

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar ↓

CPK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar or draw

81%

Ulaanbaatar or CPK

76%

Draw or CPK

43%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+

32%

CPK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals

81%

Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals

50%

Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals

23%

CPK 1+ goals

56%

CPK 2+ goals

20%

CPK 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)

76%

CPK (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

CPK away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar attack 1.33 + CPK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

CPK attack 0.67 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ulaanbaatar scores more

57%

level

24%

CPK scores more

19%

Ulaanbaatar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff