CPK 0–1 Ulaanbaatar: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

CPK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ulaanbaatar

10/26/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CPK44%

×Draw28%

Ulaanbaatar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CPKExpected goals in this matchUlaanbaatar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.00

CPK

1.33

Ulaanbaatar

1.00

CPK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CPK

1.33

Ulaanbaatar

1.00

allows per match

CPK

1.00

Ulaanbaatar

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CPK+0.00on par

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Ulaanbaatar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CPK or draw

72%

CPK or Ulaanbaatar

72%

Draw or Ulaanbaatar

56%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+

21%

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals

74%

CPK 2+ goals

38%

CPK 3+ goals

15%

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals

63%

Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals

26%

Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)

61%

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ulaanbaatar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 1.33 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ulaanbaatar attack 1.00 + CPK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CPK scores more

44%

level

28%

Ulaanbaatar scores more

28%

CPK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff