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Ulaanbaatar vs BCH Lions — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar
Ulaanbaatar
FT
9 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
BCH Lions
BCH Lions
O. Mijiddorj 80', 78', 77', 45'
S. Teafanov 64', 55'
A. Suzuki 13', 11', 5'
3/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulaanbaatar84%
×Draw9%
BCH Lions7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar
4.77
BCH Lions
1.50

Ulaanbaatar creates 218% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar
3.00
BCH Lions
1.85

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar
1.14
BCH Lions
6.54

finishing

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par
BCH Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar ↓

BCH Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar or draw
93%
Ulaanbaatar or BCH Lions
91%
Draw or BCH Lions
16%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+
70%
BCH Lions wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals
99%
Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals
94%
Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals
82%
BCH Lions 1+ goals
78%
BCH Lions 2+ goals
44%
BCH Lions 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)
92%
BCH Lions (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

BCH Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 6.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar attack 3.00 + BCH Lions defence 6.54 → ÷2 → 4.77

BCH Lions attack 1.85 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ulaanbaatar scores more
84%
level
9%
BCH Lions scores more
7%

Ulaanbaatar at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
A. Suzuki
11'
A. Suzuki
13'
A. Suzuki
40'
T. Sodbilgun
45'
O. Mijiddorj
55'
S. Teafanov
64'
S. Teafanov
77'
O. Mijiddorj
78'
O. Mijiddorj
80'
O. Mijiddorj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulaanbaatar vs BCH Lions

Ulaanbaatar beat BCH Lions 9-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Suzuki (5', 11', 13'), T. Sodbilgun (40'), O. Mijiddorj (45', 77', 78', 80'), S. Teafanov (55', 64').

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.