BCH Lions 0–6 Ulaanbaatar: Result & Stats

BCH Lions

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Ulaanbaatar

5/13/2023

Premier League · Round 20Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BCH Lions3%

×Draw5%

Ulaanbaatar92%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BCH LionsExpected goals in this matchUlaanbaatar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

4.96

BCH Lions

0.97

Ulaanbaatar

4.96

Ulaanbaatar creates 411% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

0.86

creates per match

3.29

6.64

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

BCH Lions

0.86

Ulaanbaatar

3.29

allows per match

BCH Lions

6.64

Ulaanbaatar

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BCH Lions+0.00on par

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCH Lions ↓

Ulaanbaatar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–37%

0–49%

1

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–37%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

BCH Lions or draw

8%

BCH Lions or Ulaanbaatar

95%

Draw or Ulaanbaatar

97%

Winning margin

BCH Lions wins by 2+

1%

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+

81%

Team goals

BCH Lions 1+ goals

62%

BCH Lions 2+ goals

25%

BCH Lions 3+ goals

7%

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals

99%

Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals

95%

Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals

83%

Draw no bet

BCH Lions (draw refunded)

3%

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCH Lions at home — creates 0.86, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Ulaanbaatar away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.08 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCH Lions attack 0.86 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ulaanbaatar attack 3.29 + BCH Lions defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

BCH Lions scores more

3%

level

5%

Ulaanbaatar scores more

92%

Ulaanbaatar at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff