Ulaanbaatar City 0–0 Erchim: Result & Stats

Ulaanbaatar City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Erchim

3/16/2023

Premier League · Round 11Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City42%

×Draw20%

Erchim38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulaanbaatar CityExpected goals in this matchErchim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

2.18

Ulaanbaatar City

2.29

Erchim

2.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 65 away

2.64

creates per match

2.74

1.61

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City

2.64

Erchim

2.74

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City

1.61

Erchim

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Erchim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

Erchim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw

62%

Ulaanbaatar City or Erchim

80%

Draw or Erchim

58%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+

24%

Erchim wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals

90%

Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals

66%

Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals

40%

Erchim 1+ goals

89%

Erchim 2+ goals

64%

Erchim 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)

52%

Erchim (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

Erchim away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + Erchim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.29

Erchim attack 2.74 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more

42%

level

20%

Erchim scores more

38%

Ulaanbaatar City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff