Erchim 1–2 Ulaanbaatar City: Result & Stats

Erchim

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ulaanbaatar City

5/14/2023

Premier League · Round 20Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Erchim41%

×Draw20%

Ulaanbaatar City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErchimExpected goals in this matchUlaanbaatar City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.04

Erchim

2.12

Ulaanbaatar City

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 55 away

2.47

creates per match

2.31

1.78

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Erchim

2.47

Ulaanbaatar City

2.31

allows per match

Erchim

1.78

Ulaanbaatar City

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Erchim or draw

62%

Erchim or Ulaanbaatar City

80%

Draw or Ulaanbaatar City

59%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+

23%

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals

88%

Erchim 2+ goals

62%

Erchim 3+ goals

35%

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals

87%

Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals

60%

Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)

52%

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Erchim scores more

41%

level

20%

Ulaanbaatar City scores more

38%

Erchim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff