Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ulaanbaatar City vs Anduud City — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
FT
5 – 0
Anduud City
Anduud City
9/23/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City72%
×Draw14%
Anduud City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar City
3.27
Anduud City
1.42

Ulaanbaatar City creates 130% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City
2.64
Anduud City
1.22

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City
1.61
Anduud City
3.89

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par
Anduud City+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

Anduud City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw
86%
Ulaanbaatar City or Anduud City
86%
Draw or Anduud City
28%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
53%
Anduud City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
96%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
83%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
62%
Anduud City 1+ goals
76%
Anduud City 2+ goals
41%
Anduud City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
84%
Anduud City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

Anduud City away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + Anduud City defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 3.27

Anduud City attack 1.22 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more
72%
level
14%
Anduud City scores more
14%

Ulaanbaatar City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulaanbaatar City vs Anduud City

Ulaanbaatar City beat Anduud City 5-0 in Premier League on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.