Anduud City 1–2 Ulaanbaatar City: Result & Stats

Anduud City

FT

1 – 2

Ulaanbaatar City

8/12/2020

Premier League · Round 8Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Anduud City14%

×Draw15%

Ulaanbaatar City71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Anduud CityExpected goals in this matchUlaanbaatar City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

3.21

Anduud City

1.44

Ulaanbaatar City

3.21

Ulaanbaatar City creates 123% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 55 away

1.11

creates per match

2.31

4.11

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Anduud City

1.11

Ulaanbaatar City

2.31

allows per match

Anduud City

4.11

Ulaanbaatar City

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anduud City+0.00on par

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anduud City ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Anduud City or draw

29%

Anduud City or Ulaanbaatar City

85%

Draw or Ulaanbaatar City

86%

Winning margin

Anduud City wins by 2+

6%

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Anduud City 1+ goals

76%

Anduud City 2+ goals

42%

Anduud City 3+ goals

18%

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals

96%

Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals

82%

Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Anduud City (draw refunded)

17%

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anduud City at home — creates 1.11, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anduud City attack 1.11 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Anduud City defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Anduud City scores more

14%

level

15%

Ulaanbaatar City scores more

71%

Ulaanbaatar City at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff