ULA FC 3–2 CD Hermanos Colmenarez: Result & Stats

ULA FC

FT

3 – 2

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

11/27/2020

Segunda División · Championship Round - 9Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

ULA FC42%

×Draw24%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ULA FCExpected goals in this matchCD Hermanos Colmenarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.44

ULA FC

1.64

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.44

ULA FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

1.62

creates per match

1.49

1.38

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

ULA FC

1.62

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.49

allows per match

ULA FC

1.38

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ULA FC+0.00on par

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ULA FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ULA FC or draw

66%

ULA FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

76%

Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

58%

Winning margin

ULA FC wins by 2+

22%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ULA FC 1+ goals

81%

ULA FC 2+ goals

49%

ULA FC 3+ goals

23%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

76%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

42%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ULA FC (draw refunded)

56%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ULA FC at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ULA FC attack 1.62 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + ULA FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ULA FC scores more

42%

level

24%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

34%

ULA FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ULA FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff