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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs ULA FC — Segunda División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CANC
00:00
ULA FC
ULA FC
4/25/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 11Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez49%
×Draw24%
ULA FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.66
ULA FC
1.14

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 46% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 53 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.77
ULA FC
1.23

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.05
ULA FC
1.55

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
ULA FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

ULA FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
74%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or ULA FC
76%
Draw or ULA FC
51%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
26%
ULA FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
81%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
49%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
23%
ULA FC 1+ goals
68%
ULA FC 2+ goals
32%
ULA FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
65%
ULA FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

ULA FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.77 + ULA FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

ULA FC attack 1.23 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
49%
level
24%
ULA FC scores more
26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CD Hermanos Colmenarez host ULA FC

April 25, 2020: CD Hermanos Colmenarez take on ULA FC in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez host ULA FC at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.