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UKS Łódź W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

UKS Łódź W
UKS Łódź W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
A. Roy 49'
9/27/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 7Stadion UKS SMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

UKS Łódź W69%
×Draw18%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UKS Łódź W
2.38
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.95

UKS Łódź W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

UKS Łódź W
1.63
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.94

allows per match

UKS Łódź W
0.97
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
3.13

finishing

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par
Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UKS Łódź W ↓

Stomilanki Olsztyn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UKS Łódź W or draw
87%
UKS Łódź W or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
82%
Draw or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
31%

Winning margin

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+
46%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals
91%
UKS Łódź W 2+ goals
68%
UKS Łódź W 3+ goals
42%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
61%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
25%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)
84%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UKS Łódź W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UKS Łódź W attack 1.63 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.38

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.94 + UKS Łódź W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

UKS Łódź W scores more
69%
level
18%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
13%

UKS Łódź W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "UKS Łódź W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Roy
UKS
Stomilanki
M. Chojnacki
Manager: M. Chojnacki
M. Chojnacki
Manager: M. Chojnacki

Ekstraliga Women: UKS Łódź W 0–1 Stomilanki Olsztyn W

Stomilanki Olsztyn W beat UKS Łódź W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on September 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Roy (49').

The match was played at Stadion UKS SMS in Łódź.