Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3–4 UKS Łódź W: Result & Stats

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

UKS Łódź W

5/11/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 21Stadion Dajtki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W17%

×Draw19%

UKS Łódź W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomilanki Olsztyn WExpected goals in this matchUKS Łódź W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.27

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

1.06

UKS Łódź W

2.27

UKS Łódź W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

0.91

creates per match

1.76

2.79

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

0.91

UKS Łódź W

1.76

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

2.79

UKS Łódź W

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

UKS Łódź W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw

36%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or UKS Łódź W

81%

Draw or UKS Łódź W

83%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+

6%

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals

65%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals

29%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals

9%

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

90%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

66%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)

20%

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

UKS Łódź W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + UKS Łódź W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

UKS Łódź W attack 1.76 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more

17%

level

19%

UKS Łódź W scores more

64%

UKS Łódź W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UKS Łódź W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff