UKS Łódź W 5–1 Pogon Tczew W: Result & Stats

UKS Łódź W

FT

5 – 1

Pogon Tczew W

3/2/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 12Stadion UKS SMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

UKS Łódź W66%

×Draw19%

Pogon Tczew W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UKS Łódź WExpected goals in this matchPogon Tczew W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.93

UKS Łódź W

2.22

Pogon Tczew W

0.93

UKS Łódź W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.63

creates per match

0.88

0.97

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

UKS Łódź W

1.63

Pogon Tczew W

0.88

allows per match

UKS Łódź W

0.97

Pogon Tczew W

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UKS Łódź W ↓

Pogon Tczew W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

UKS Łódź W or draw

85%

UKS Łódź W or Pogon Tczew W

81%

Draw or Pogon Tczew W

34%

Winning margin

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

43%

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

89%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

65%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

38%

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals

61%

Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals

24%

Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

82%

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UKS Łódź W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Pogon Tczew W away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UKS Łódź W attack 1.63 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.22

Pogon Tczew W attack 0.88 + UKS Łódź W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

UKS Łódź W scores more

66%

level

19%

Pogon Tczew W scores more

15%

UKS Łódź W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "UKS Łódź W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff