Pogon Tczew W 0–3 UKS Łódź W: Result & Stats

Pogon Tczew W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

UKS Łódź W

4/13/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 17Stadion Miejski im. Alfonsa Guzińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogon Tczew W18%

×Draw19%

UKS Łódź W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon Tczew WExpected goals in this matchUKS Łódź W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.37

Pogon Tczew W

1.17

UKS Łódź W

2.37

UKS Łódź W creates 103% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.12

creates per match

1.76

2.97

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Pogon Tczew W

1.12

UKS Łódź W

1.76

allows per match

Pogon Tczew W

2.97

UKS Łódź W

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Tczew W ↓

UKS Łódź W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Pogon Tczew W or draw

36%

Pogon Tczew W or UKS Łódź W

81%

Draw or UKS Łódź W

82%

Winning margin

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+

7%

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals

69%

Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals

33%

Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals

11%

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

91%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

68%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)

22%

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Tczew W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.97 · 33 matches

UKS Łódź W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Tczew W attack 1.12 + UKS Łódź W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

UKS Łódź W attack 1.76 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pogon Tczew W scores more

18%

level

19%

UKS Łódź W scores more

64%

UKS Łódź W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UKS Łódź W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff