UKS Łódź W 6–0 Medyk Konin W: Result & Stats

UKS Łódź W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Medyk Konin W

11/12/2023

Ekstraliga Women · Round 10Stadion UKS SMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

UKS Łódź W73%

×Draw17%

Medyk Konin W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UKS Łódź WExpected goals in this matchMedyk Konin W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.76

UKS Łódź W

2.36

Medyk Konin W

0.76

UKS Łódź W creates 211% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

0.55

0.97

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

UKS Łódź W

1.63

Medyk Konin W

0.55

allows per match

UKS Łódź W

0.97

Medyk Konin W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UKS Łódź W ↓

Medyk Konin W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

UKS Łódź W or draw

90%

UKS Łódź W or Medyk Konin W

83%

Draw or Medyk Konin W

27%

Winning margin

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

50%

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

90%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

68%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

41%

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals

53%

Medyk Konin W 2+ goals

18%

Medyk Konin W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

88%

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UKS Łódź W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UKS Łódź W attack 1.63 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.36

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + UKS Łódź W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

UKS Łódź W scores more

73%

level

17%

Medyk Konin W scores more

10%

UKS Łódź W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UKS Łódź W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff