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Medyk Konin W vs UKS Łódź W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
UKS Łódź W
UKS Łódź W
5/25/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 21Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Medyk Konin W25%
×Draw21%
UKS Łódź W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medyk Konin W
1.42
UKS Łódź W
2.20

UKS Łódź W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Medyk Konin W
1.64
UKS Łódź W
1.76

allows per match

Medyk Konin W
2.64
UKS Łódź W
1.21

finishing

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par
UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medyk Konin W ↓

UKS Łódź W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Medyk Konin W or draw
45%
Medyk Konin W or UKS Łódź W
79%
Draw or UKS Łódź W
75%

Winning margin

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
11%
UKS Łódź W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
76%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
41%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
17%
UKS Łódź W 1+ goals
89%
UKS Łódź W 2+ goals
64%
UKS Łódź W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
31%
UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medyk Konin W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

UKS Łódź W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medyk Konin W attack 1.64 + UKS Łódź W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

UKS Łódź W attack 1.76 + Medyk Konin W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Medyk Konin W scores more
25%
level
21%
UKS Łódź W scores more
55%

UKS Łódź W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UKS Łódź W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Medyk Konin W 2 – 3 UKS Łódź W

UKS Łódź W beat Medyk Konin W 3-2 in Ekstraliga Women on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.