UKS Łódź W 0–1 Czarni Sosnowiec W: Result & Stats

UKS Łódź W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Czarni Sosnowiec W

4/16/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 18Stadion UKS SMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

UKS Łódź W25%

×Draw23%

Czarni Sosnowiec W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UKS Łódź WExpected goals in this matchCzarni Sosnowiec W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.88

UKS Łódź W

1.24

Czarni Sosnowiec W

1.88

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.63

creates per match

2.79

0.97

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

UKS Łódź W

1.63

Czarni Sosnowiec W

2.79

allows per match

UKS Łódź W

0.97

Czarni Sosnowiec W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UKS Łódź W ↓

Czarni Sosnowiec W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

UKS Łódź W or draw

48%

UKS Łódź W or Czarni Sosnowiec W

77%

Draw or Czarni Sosnowiec W

75%

Winning margin

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

10%

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

71%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

35%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

13%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals

85%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals

56%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

33%

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UKS Łódź W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UKS Łódź W attack 1.63 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 2.79 + UKS Łódź W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UKS Łódź W scores more

25%

level

23%

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more

52%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff