Czarni Sosnowiec W 2–2 UKS Łódź W: Result & Stats

Czarni Sosnowiec W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UKS Łódź W

3/9/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 13Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W60%

×Draw19%

UKS Łódź W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni Sosnowiec WExpected goals in this matchUKS Łódź W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.33

Czarni Sosnowiec W

2.34

UKS Łódź W

1.33

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 76% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

3.47

creates per match

1.76

0.91

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W

3.47

UKS Łódź W

1.76

allows per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W

0.91

UKS Łódź W

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Sosnowiec W ↓

UKS Łódź W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw

79%

Czarni Sosnowiec W or UKS Łódź W

81%

Draw or UKS Łódź W

40%

Winning margin

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+

38%

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals

90%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals

67%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals

41%

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

74%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

38%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)

74%

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

UKS Łódź W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 3.47 + UKS Łódź W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 2.34

UKS Łódź W attack 1.76 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more

60%

level

19%

UKS Łódź W scores more

21%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff