Ukraine 2–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Ukraine

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania

R. Malinovskiy 58', 29'

10/11/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ukraine73%

×Draw17%

Lithuania10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UkraineExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.75

Ukraine

2.38

Lithuania

0.75

Ukraine creates 217% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.27

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Ukraine

1.27

Lithuania

0.50

allows per match

Ukraine

1.00

Lithuania

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ukraine or draw

90%

Ukraine or Lithuania

83%

Draw or Lithuania

27%

Winning margin

Ukraine wins by 2+

50%

Lithuania wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ukraine 1+ goals

91%

Ukraine 2+ goals

68%

Ukraine 3+ goals

42%

Lithuania 1+ goals

53%

Lithuania 2+ goals

17%

Lithuania 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ukraine (draw refunded)

88%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine attack 1.27 + Lithuania defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Ukraine defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ukraine scores more

73%

level

17%

Lithuania scores more

10%

Ukraine at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Malinovskiy

Ukraine · M

9.6

Match Events

29'

R. Malinovskiy↳ Júnior Moraes

54'

55'

57'

58'

59'

Y. Konoplyanka← Marlos

62'

D. Šimkus← V. Andriuškevičius

65'

V. Tsygankov← A. Yarmolenko

73'

S. Sydorchuk← T. Stepanenko

73'

J. Lasickas← P. Golubickas

77'

D. Matulevičius← K. Laukžemis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UkraineLithuania

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots6

4Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots6

4On Target1

9Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

685Total Passes321

623Accurate Passes254

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0