Lithuania 0–3 Ukraine: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ukraine

R. Malinovskiy 61'

Marlos 27'

O. Zinchenko 7'

9/7/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lithuania18%

×Draw20%

Ukraine62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.16

Lithuania

1.09

Ukraine

2.16

Ukraine creates 98% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

1.57

2.75

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Lithuania

0.75

Ukraine

1.57

allows per match

Lithuania

2.75

Ukraine

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

38%

Lithuania or Ukraine

80%

Draw or Ukraine

82%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

7%

Ukraine wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

66%

Lithuania 2+ goals

30%

Lithuania 3+ goals

10%

Ukraine 1+ goals

88%

Ukraine 2+ goals

63%

Ukraine 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

23%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.75 + Ukraine defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ukraine attack 1.57 + Lithuania defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lithuania scores more

18%

level

20%

Ukraine scores more

62%

Ukraine at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Marlos

Ukraine · F

8.4

Match Events

7'

O. Zinchenko↳ Marlos

27'

Marlos

52'

V. Slivka← P. Golubickas

60'

V. Tsygankov← A. Yarmolenko

61'

R. Malinovskiy↳ R. Yaremchuk

63'

M. Kuklys← G. Matulevičius

65'

Júnior Moraes← R. Yaremchuk

68'

K. Laukžemis← F. Černych

73'

Vitaliy Mykolenko

80'

R. Bezus← R. Malinovskiy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaUkraine

Overview

31%Possession69%

10Total Shots18

6Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots18

1On Target8

8Off Target6

1Blocked4

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box11

Passing

31%Possession69%

346Total Passes764

254Accurate Passes682

73%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2