Ukraine 2–0 Iceland: Result & Stats | League #32

Ukraine

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland

O. Gutsulyak 90'

O. Zubkov 83'

11/16/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 10Stadion Wojska Polskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ukraine33%

×Draw29%

Iceland38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UkraineExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.17

Ukraine

1.08

Iceland

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ukraine

1.17

Iceland

1.00

allows per match

Ukraine

1.33

Iceland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ukraine or draw

62%

Ukraine or Iceland

71%

Draw or Iceland

67%

Winning margin

Ukraine wins by 2+

13%

Iceland wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ukraine 1+ goals

66%

Ukraine 2+ goals

29%

Ukraine 3+ goals

10%

Iceland 1+ goals

69%

Iceland 2+ goals

33%

Iceland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ukraine (draw refunded)

47%

Iceland (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Iceland away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine attack 1.17 + Iceland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Iceland attack 1.00 + Ukraine defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ukraine scores more

33%

level

29%

Iceland scores more

38%

Iceland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Gutsulyak

Ukraine · M

9.0

Match Events

45+1'

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson

65'

J. Gudmundsson← B. Willumsson

69'

R. Yaremchuk← V. Vanat

69'

M. Shaparenko← Y. Yarmolyuk

75'

Ruslan Malinovskyi

77'

O. Gutsulyak← R. Malinovskyi

83'

O. Zubkov↳ O. Gutsulyak

85'

Yukhym Konoplia

86'

L. Tomasson← M. E. Ellertsson

86'

D. T. Gudjohnsen← J. Thorsteinsson

87'

O. Svatok← O. Zubkov

87'

Y. Nazaryna← V. Tsygankov

90'

O. Gutsulyak↳ I. Kaliuzhnyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UkraineIceland

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots10

1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.58

3Corners10

12Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target2

7Off Target3

0Blocked5

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

432Total Passes397

350Accurate Passes313

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2