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Iceland vs Ukraine — League #32 2026

Iceland
Iceland
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Ukraine
Ukraine
A. Gudmundsson 75', 59'
M. E. Ellertsson 35'
O. Ocheretko 88'
I. Kaliuzhnyi 85'
R. Malinovskyi 45', 14'
O. Gutsulyak 45'
10/10/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 7Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iceland47%
×Draw22%
Ukraine31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iceland
2.00
Ukraine
1.60

Iceland creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Iceland
1.80
Ukraine
1.40

allows per match

Iceland
1.80
Ukraine
2.20

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par
Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Ukraine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Iceland or draw
69%
Iceland or Ukraine
78%
Draw or Ukraine
53%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+
27%
Ukraine wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals
86%
Iceland 2+ goals
59%
Iceland 3+ goals
32%
Ukraine 1+ goals
80%
Ukraine 2+ goals
47%
Ukraine 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)
60%
Ukraine (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.80 + Ukraine defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ukraine attack 1.40 + Iceland defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Iceland scores more
47%
level
22%
Ukraine scores more
31%

Iceland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. GudmundssonIcelandIceland · M
8.7

Match Events

14'
R. Malinovskyi↳ V. Mykolenko
35'
M. E. Ellertsson↳ I. Johannesson
39'
N. Voloshyn← G. Sudakov
41'
Andri Guðjohnsen
45'
O. Gutsulyak
45'
R. Malinovskyi↳ N. Voloshyn
59'
A. Gudmundsson↳ H. Haraldsson
65'
Mykola Matviyenko
68'
Yukhym Konoplia
70'
L. Tomasson← S. Magnusson
70'
K. Hlynsson← J. Thorsteinsson
70'
A. Dovbyk← V. Vanat
70'
O. Ocheretko← M. Shaparenko
75'
A. Gudmundsson↳ A. Gudjohnsen
83'
Vitaliy Mykolenko
85'
I. Kaliuzhnyi
86'
G. Thordarson← M. E. Ellertsson
86'
B. Willumsson← I. Johannesson
86'
M. Anderson← A. Gudjohnsen
86'
A. Bondarenko← R. Malinovskyi
86'
V. Veleten← O. Gutsulyak
88'
O. Ocheretko↳ A. Bondarenko
90+1'
Oleg Ocheretko

Possession

65%Iceland

Shots

9Iceland

Pass accuracy

54%Iceland

Statistics

IcelandUkraine
Overview
65%Possession35%
9Total Shots8
1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.78
4Corners2
11Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots8
5On Target7
3Off Target1
1Blocked0
7Inside Box5
2Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
649Total Passes343
555Accurate Passes252
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

League #32: Iceland 3–5 Ukraine

Ukraine beat Iceland 5-3 in League #32 on October 10, 2025.

Goals: R. Malinovskyi (14', 45'), M. E. Ellertsson (35'), O. Gutsulyak (45'), A. Gudmundsson (59', 75'), I. Kaliuzhnyi (85'), O. Ocheretko (88').

Iceland controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík.