Ukraine 1–2 Germany: Result & Stats

Ukraine

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Germany

Ruslan Malinovskyi 76' (pen)

Leon Goretzka 49'

Matthias Ginter 20'

10/10/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 3Olimpiysky National Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ukraine52%

×Draw25%

Germany23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UkraineExpected goals in this matchGermany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Ukraine

1.63

Germany

1.00

Ukraine creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Ukraine

1.33

Germany

1.33

allows per match

Ukraine

0.67

Germany

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine+0.00on par

Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine ↓

Germany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ukraine or draw

77%

Ukraine or Germany

75%

Draw or Germany

48%

Winning margin

Ukraine wins by 2+

28%

Germany wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ukraine 1+ goals

80%

Ukraine 2+ goals

48%

Ukraine 3+ goals

22%

Germany 1+ goals

63%

Germany 2+ goals

26%

Germany 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ukraine (draw refunded)

69%

Germany (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Germany away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine attack 1.33 + Germany defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Germany attack 1.33 + Ukraine defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ukraine scores more

52%

level

25%

Germany scores more

23%

Ukraine at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Georgiy Bushchan

Ukraine · G

7.9

Match Events

20'

Matthias Ginter↳ Antonio Rüdiger

41'

Ruslan Malinovskyi

49'

Leon Goretzka

53'

Toni Kroos

69'

Oleksandr Zubkov← Viktor Tsygankov

69'

Marlos← Andriy Yarmolenko

76'

Ruslan MalinovskyiPenalty

77'

Mykola Shaparenko← Viktor Kovalenko

80'

Timo Werner← Julian Draxler

84'

Matthias Ginter

84'

Evgeny Makarenko← Sergiy Sydorchuk

90'

Kai Havertz← Serge Gnabry

90'

Emre Can← Lukas Klostermann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UkraineGermany

Overview

27%Possession73%

9Total Shots17

0Corners7

8Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target12

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

2Inside Box12

7Outside Box5

Passing

27%Possession73%

301Total Passes809

235Accurate Passes736

78%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

10Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0