Germany 3–3 Ukraine: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Germany

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ukraine

Joshua Kimmich 90+1' (pen)

Kai Havertz 83'

Niclas Füllkrug 6'

Viktor Tsygankov 56', 18'

Antonio Rüdiger 23' (OG)

6/12/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1wohninvest WESERSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Germany51%

×Draw23%

Ukraine26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GermanyExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.26

Germany

1.85

Ukraine

1.26

Germany creates 47% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

2.10

creates per match

1.47

1.05

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Germany

2.10

Ukraine

1.47

allows per match

Germany

1.05

Ukraine

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Germany or draw

74%

Germany or Ukraine

77%

Draw or Ukraine

49%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+

29%

Ukraine wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals

84%

Germany 2+ goals

55%

Germany 3+ goals

28%

Ukraine 1+ goals

72%

Ukraine 2+ goals

36%

Ukraine 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)

66%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 2.10 + Ukraine defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ukraine attack 1.47 + Germany defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Germany scores more

51%

level

23%

Ukraine scores more

26%

Germany at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Viktor Tsygankov

Ukraine · F

8.2

Match Events

6'

Niclas Füllkrug↳ Marius Wolf

18'

Viktor Tsygankov↳ Oleksandr Tymchyk

19'

Viktor TsygankovGoal cancelled

23'

Antonio RüdigerOwn goal

46'

Kai Havertz← Niclas Füllkrug

46'

Lukas Klostermann← Nico Schlotterbeck

56'

Viktor Tsygankov↳ Artem Dovbyk

62'

Jonas Hofmann← Marius Wolf

62'

Jamal Musiala← Leon Goretzka

64'

Vladyslav Vanat← Artem Dovbyk

65'

Danylo Ignatenko← Taras Stepanenko

65'

Ruslan Malinovskyi← Andriy Yarmolenko

71'

Benjamin Henrichs← David Raum

71'

Florian Wirtz← Julian Brandt

71'

Oleksandr Zubkov← Viktor Tsygankov

78'

Oleksandr Pikhalyonok← Mykhaylo Mudryk

78'

Eduard Sobol← Vitaliy Mykolenko

83'

Kai Havertz↳ Antonio Rüdiger

90+1'

Joshua KimmichPenalty

90'

Ruslan Malinovskyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GermanyUkraine

Overview

69%Possession31%

16Total Shots5

4Corners2

9Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots5

3On Target3

8Off Target2

5Blocked0

14Inside Box5

2Outside Box0

Passing

69%Possession31%

749Total Passes339

674Accurate Passes272

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5

Match Recap: Germany vs Ukraine

Germany and Ukraine drew 3-3 in Friendlies on June 12, 2023.

Goals: Niclas Füllkrug (6'), Viktor Tsygankov (18', 56'), Antonio Rüdiger (23' o.g.), Kai Havertz (83'), Joshua Kimmich (90+1' pen).

Germany controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bremen.

Germany vs Ukraine — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Germany vs Ukraine