Ukraine 1–0 Czechia: Result & Stats

Ukraine

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Czechia

Ruslan Malinovskyi 43'

10/16/2018

UEFA Nations League · League B - 4Metalist Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ukraine51%

×Draw28%

Czechia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UkraineExpected goals in this matchCzechia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.79

Ukraine

1.39

Czechia

0.79

Ukraine creates 76% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

0.91

0.67

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ukraine

1.33

Czechia

0.91

allows per match

Ukraine

0.67

Czechia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine+0.00on par

Czechia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine ↓

Czechia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ukraine or draw

79%

Ukraine or Czechia

72%

Draw or Czechia

49%

Winning margin

Ukraine wins by 2+

25%

Czechia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ukraine 1+ goals

75%

Ukraine 2+ goals

40%

Ukraine 3+ goals

16%

Czechia 1+ goals

55%

Czechia 2+ goals

19%

Czechia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ukraine (draw refunded)

71%

Czechia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Czechia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine attack 1.33 + Czechia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Czechia attack 0.91 + Ukraine defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ukraine scores more

51%

level

28%

Czechia scores more

21%

Ukraine at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Ondřej Čelůstka

39'

Yaroslav Rakitskiy

43'

Ruslan Malinovskyi↳ Roman Yaremchuk

67'

Jaromír Zmrhal← Matěj Vydra

70'

Viktor Tsygankov← Yevhen Konoplyanka

73'

Michael Krmenčík← Patrik Schick

81'

Josef Šural← Jakub Jankto

86'

Oleksandr Zinchenko← Ruslan Malinovskyi

90'

David Pavelka

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UkraineCzechia

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots11

3Corners7

12Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target6

8Off Target5

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2