Czechia 3–2 Ukraine: Result & Stats

Czechia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Ukraine

T. Souček 80' (pen)

P. Šulc 45+2', 21'

H. Sudakov 84'

V. Vanat 37'

9/10/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 2Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Czechia49%

×Draw23%

Ukraine28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CzechiaExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.33

Czechia

1.84

Ukraine

1.33

Czechia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.60

creates per match

1.27

1.40

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Czechia

1.60

Ukraine

1.27

allows per match

Czechia

1.40

Ukraine

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czechia+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czechia ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Czechia or draw

72%

Czechia or Ukraine

77%

Draw or Ukraine

51%

Winning margin

Czechia wins by 2+

27%

Ukraine wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Czechia 1+ goals

84%

Czechia 2+ goals

55%

Czechia 3+ goals

28%

Ukraine 1+ goals

74%

Ukraine 2+ goals

38%

Ukraine 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Czechia (draw refunded)

64%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czechia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czechia attack 1.60 + Ukraine defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ukraine attack 1.27 + Czechia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Czechia scores more

49%

level

23%

Ukraine scores more

28%

Czechia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Czechia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

P. Šulc

Czechia · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

P. Šulc↳ V. Černý

37'

V. Vanat↳ M. Shaparenko

45+2'

47'

48'

54'

63'

65'

66'

68'

69'

V. Tsyhankov← A. Yarmolenko

69'

H. Sudakov← M. Shaparenko

70'

Georgiy Sudakov

78'

Ladislav KrejčíPenalty confirmed

79'

R. Malinovskyi← T. Stepanenko

79'

R. Yaremchuk← V. Vanat

80'

T. SoučekPenalty

81'

Roman Yaremchuk

81'

V. Kušej← P. Šulc

81'

P. Schick← T. Chorý

84'

H. Sudakov↳ V. Tsyhankov

85'

O. Pikhalionok← O. Zinchenko

89'

A. Král← L. Červ

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CzechiaUkraine

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots19

0Corners8

16Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots19

5On Target5

4Off Target6

5Blocked8

9Inside Box14

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

347Total Passes458

266Accurate Passes383

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0