Ukraine U18 0–2 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Ukraine U18

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Norway U19

A. Saeed 72' (pen)

E. Sadarangani 47'

10/14/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ukraine U1840%

×Draw24%

Norway U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine U18Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.44

Ukraine U18

1.56

Norway U19

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.70

1.17

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Ukraine U18

1.33

Norway U19

1.70

allows per match

Ukraine U18

1.17

Norway U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine U18+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U18 ↓

Norway U19 →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ukraine U18 or draw

65%

Ukraine U18 or Norway U19

76%

Draw or Norway U19

60%

Winning margin

Ukraine U18 wins by 2+

20%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ukraine U18 1+ goals

79%

Ukraine U18 2+ goals

46%

Ukraine U18 3+ goals

21%

Norway U19 1+ goals

76%

Norway U19 2+ goals

42%

Norway U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U18 (draw refunded)

53%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U18 attack 1.33 + Norway U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Norway U19 attack 1.70 + Ukraine U18 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ukraine U18 scores more

40%

level

24%

Norway U19 scores more

35%

Ukraine U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ukraine U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

E. Sadarangani

72'

A. SaeedPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff