Norway U19 0–2 Ukraine U18: Result & Stats

Norway U19

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ukraine U18

M. Melnyk 45'

D. Zudin 12'

9/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Norway U1943%

×Draw24%

Ukraine U1834%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchUkraine U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.46

Norway U19

1.67

Ukraine U18

1.46

Norway U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

1.25

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Norway U19

2.33

Ukraine U18

1.25

allows per match

Norway U19

1.67

Ukraine U18

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Ukraine U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Ukraine U18 →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

66%

Norway U19 or Ukraine U18

76%

Draw or Ukraine U18

57%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

22%

Ukraine U18 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

81%

Norway U19 2+ goals

50%

Norway U19 3+ goals

23%

Ukraine U18 1+ goals

77%

Ukraine U18 2+ goals

43%

Ukraine U18 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Ukraine U18 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Ukraine U18 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 2.33 + Ukraine U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ukraine U18 attack 1.25 + Norway U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norway U19 scores more

43%

level

24%

Ukraine U18 scores more

34%

Norway U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Zudin

45'

M. Melnyk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff