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Újpest II vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
3/17/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 20Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Újpest II49%
×Draw22%
Tiszafuredi VSE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
1.96
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.48

Újpest II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Újpest II
2.29
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Újpest II
1.50
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
71%
Újpest II or Tiszafuredi VSE
78%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
51%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
28%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
86%
Újpest II 2+ goals
58%
Újpest II 3+ goals
31%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
77%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
43%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
62%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 2.29 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Újpest II scores more
49%
level
22%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
29%

Újpest II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Újpest II vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Újpest II beat Tiszafuredi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.