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Tiszafuredi VSE vs Újpest II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
FT
0 – 1
Újpest II
Újpest II
9/1/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 5Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tiszafuredi VSE43%
×Draw24%
Újpest II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64
Újpest II
1.41

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 16% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tiszafuredi VSE
1.77
Újpest II
1.26

allows per match

Tiszafuredi VSE
1.55
Újpest II
1.50

finishing

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszafuredi VSE ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tiszafuredi VSE or draw
67%
Tiszafuredi VSE or Újpest II
76%
Draw or Újpest II
57%

Winning margin

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
22%
Újpest II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
81%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
49%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
23%
Újpest II 1+ goals
76%
Újpest II 2+ goals
41%
Újpest II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
57%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszafuredi VSE at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 102 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.77 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Újpest II attack 1.26 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
43%
level
24%
Újpest II scores more
33%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiszafuredi VSE vs Újpest II

Újpest II beat Tiszafuredi VSE 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep in Tiszafüred.