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Újpest II vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
8/19/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 4Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Újpest II55%
×Draw21%
Sényő Carnifex24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
2.18
Sényő Carnifex
1.40

Újpest II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 110 away

creates per match

Újpest II
2.29
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Újpest II
1.50
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
76%
Újpest II or Sényő Carnifex
79%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
45%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
33%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
89%
Újpest II 2+ goals
64%
Újpest II 3+ goals
37%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
75%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
41%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
69%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 2.29 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.18

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Újpest II scores more
55%
level
21%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
24%

Újpest II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Újpest II vs Sényő Carnifex

Újpest II beat Sényő Carnifex 5-3 in NB III - Northeast on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.