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Sényő Carnifex vs Újpest II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Újpest II
Újpest II
4/3/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 28Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sényő Carnifex43%
×Draw24%
Újpest II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sényő Carnifex
1.65
Újpest II
1.41

Sényő Carnifex creates 17% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.79
Újpest II
1.26

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.56
Újpest II
1.50

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw
67%
Sényő Carnifex or Újpest II
76%
Draw or Újpest II
57%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
22%
Újpest II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
81%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
49%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
23%
Újpest II 1+ goals
76%
Újpest II 2+ goals
41%
Újpest II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
57%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Újpest II attack 1.26 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more
43%
level
24%
Újpest II scores more
33%

Sényő Carnifex at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sényő Carnifex vs Újpest II

Sényő Carnifex and Újpest II drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sényői Focipálya in Sényő.