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Újpest II vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
11/27/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 19Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Újpest II49%
×Draw23%
Kecskeméti TE II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
1.81
Kecskeméti TE II
1.31

Újpest II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Újpest II
1.39
Kecskeméti TE II
1.18

allows per match

Újpest II
1.45
Kecskeméti TE II
2.24

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
72%
Újpest II or Kecskeméti TE II
77%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
51%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
27%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
84%
Újpest II 2+ goals
54%
Újpest II 3+ goals
27%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
73%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
38%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
64%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 67 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 1.39 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Újpest II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Újpest II scores more
49%
level
23%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
28%

Újpest II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Újpest II 2–3 Kecskeméti TE II

Kecskeméti TE II beat Újpest II 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.