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Kecskeméti TE II vs Újpest II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Újpest II
Újpest II
5/21/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 38Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II37%
×Draw24%
Újpest II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
1.55
Újpest II
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.41
Újpest II
1.51

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.71
Újpest II
1.69

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
61%
Kecskeméti TE II or Újpest II
76%
Draw or Újpest II
63%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
18%
Újpest II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
79%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
46%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
20%
Újpest II 1+ goals
80%
Újpest II 2+ goals
48%
Újpest II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
48%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + Újpest II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Újpest II attack 1.51 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
37%
level
24%
Újpest II scores more
39%

Újpest II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Kecskeméti TE II 2–3 Újpest II

Újpest II beat Kecskeméti TE II 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum in Kecskemét.