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Újpest II vs FC Hatvan — NB III - Northeast 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
11/5/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 14Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Újpest II57%
×Draw21%
FC Hatvan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
2.16
FC Hatvan
1.27

Újpest II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

creates per match

Újpest II
2.29
FC Hatvan
1.04

allows per match

Újpest II
1.50
FC Hatvan
2.03

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
FC Hatvan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

FC Hatvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
78%
Újpest II or FC Hatvan
79%
Draw or FC Hatvan
43%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
35%
FC Hatvan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
88%
Újpest II 2+ goals
63%
Újpest II 3+ goals
36%
FC Hatvan 1+ goals
72%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
36%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
72%
FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

FC Hatvan away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.03 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 2.29 + FC Hatvan defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.16

FC Hatvan attack 1.04 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Újpest II scores more
57%
level
21%
FC Hatvan scores more
22%

Újpest II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Újpest II 3–1 FC Hatvan

Újpest II beat FC Hatvan 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.