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FC Hatvan vs Újpest II — NB III - Northeast 2019

FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Újpest II
Újpest II
5/19/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 29Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Hatvan37%
×Draw25%
Újpest II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Hatvan
1.44
Újpest II
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Hatvan
1.39
Újpest II
1.26

allows per match

FC Hatvan
1.67
Újpest II
1.50

finishing

FC Hatvan+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Hatvan ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Hatvan or draw
62%
FC Hatvan or Újpest II
75%
Draw or Újpest II
63%

Winning margin

FC Hatvan wins by 2+
17%
Újpest II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Hatvan 1+ goals
76%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
42%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
18%
Újpest II 1+ goals
77%
Újpest II 2+ goals
43%
Újpest II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
49%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Újpest II attack 1.26 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Hatvan scores more
37%
level
25%
Újpest II scores more
38%

Újpest II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: FC Hatvan 2–0 Újpest II

FC Hatvan beat Újpest II 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.