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Újezd Praha 4 vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
4/15/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 22Újezd Praha 4 UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Újezd Praha 468%
×Draw17%
Sokol Libiš15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újezd Praha 4
2.65
Sokol Libiš
1.18

Újezd Praha 4 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Újezd Praha 4
2.30
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Újezd Praha 4
1.02
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újezd Praha 4 ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Újezd Praha 4 or draw
85%
Újezd Praha 4 or Sokol Libiš
83%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
32%

Winning margin

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
47%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
93%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
74%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
48%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
69%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
33%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
82%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újezd Praha 4 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újezd Praha 4 attack 2.30 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Újezd Praha 4 scores more
68%
level
17%
Sokol Libiš scores more
15%

Újezd Praha 4 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Újezd Praha 4 2 – 0 Sokol Libiš

Újezd Praha 4 beat Sokol Libiš 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Újezd Praha 4 UMT in Praha-Újezd.