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Sokol Libiš vs Újezd Praha 4 — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
9/17/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 7Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš25%
×Draw21%
Újezd Praha 454%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.35
Újezd Praha 4
2.09

Újezd Praha 4 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Újezd Praha 4
1.85

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Újezd Praha 4
1.51

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Újezd Praha 4 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
46%
Sokol Libiš or Újezd Praha 4
79%
Draw or Újezd Praha 4
75%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
10%
Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
74%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
39%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
15%
Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
88%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
62%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
31%
Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Újezd Praha 4 away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Újezd Praha 4 attack 1.85 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
25%
level
21%
Újezd Praha 4 scores more
54%

Újezd Praha 4 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 1–2 Újezd Praha 4

Újezd Praha 4 beat Sokol Libiš 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.