Újezd Praha 4 2–1 Ostrov: Result & Stats

Újezd Praha 4

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ostrov

3/8/2025

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 16Újezd Praha 4 UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Újezd Praha 460%

×Draw20%

Ostrov20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Újezd Praha 4Expected goals in this matchOstrov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.15

Újezd Praha 4

2.15

Ostrov

1.15

Újezd Praha 4 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

2.30

creates per match

1.28

1.02

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Újezd Praha 4

2.30

Ostrov

1.28

allows per match

Újezd Praha 4

1.02

Ostrov

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Ostrov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újezd Praha 4 ↓

Ostrov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Újezd Praha 4 or draw

80%

Újezd Praha 4 or Ostrov

80%

Draw or Ostrov

40%

Winning margin

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+

37%

Ostrov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals

88%

Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals

63%

Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals

36%

Ostrov 1+ goals

68%

Ostrov 2+ goals

32%

Ostrov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)

75%

Ostrov (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újezd Praha 4 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Ostrov away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újezd Praha 4 attack 2.30 + Ostrov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ostrov attack 1.28 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Újezd Praha 4 scores more

60%

level

20%

Ostrov scores more

20%

Újezd Praha 4 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff